Economic bubbles from flowers to bytes
An economic bubble is aptly named. It is a delicate thing that rises and floats on a warm updraft of enthusiastic optimism. But, just like a soap bubble, an economic bubble has a tendency to burst. And somebody, or a lot of somebodies, will get soap in their eyes.
An economic bubble? What’s that?
An economic bubble is a buying cycle with a steep price rise followed by a similarly vertical drop. Many such bubbles are boosted by speculators—investors who believe the price will continue to rise and who want to turn a quick profit. Typically, the buying behaviour is best described as frenzied. When the price is so high that buying slows and stops, the price drops and the bubble bursts. An equally frenzied sell-off then follows as speculators scramble to salvage what profit—if any—they can.
Broadly speaking, a bubble has five stages:
- Interest: A new technology or buying opportunity catches the attention of investors.
- Growth: Investors begin to buy, pushing the price up and creating even more interest.
- Intoxication: Optimism reigns. Prices skyrocket. FOMO (fear of missing out) takes hold.
- Profit: Nervous—or shrewd—investors begin to sell and take their profits out.
- Panic: The price drops. Investors scramble to sell. The bubble bursts. The price crashes.
We can see this familiar cycle appear throughout our economic history.
Human nature is a feature of the economy
There is more than a dash of human psychology in every economic bubble. In his wonderfully titled 1841 book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles Mackay explored the psychology behind mass belief and gullibility. One of his interests was market speculation or what he called “money mania.”
Every age has its peculiar folly: Some scheme, project, or fantasy into which it plunges, spurred on by the love of gain, the necessity of excitement, or the force of imitation.
Mackay cited three historic economic bubbles to illustrate his money mania theories.
Tulip Mania: The Netherlands, 1634–37
During the early 17th century, the Dutch fondness for tulips became something of an obsession. The prices at tulip markets rose to ridiculous levels as more and more people bought tulip bulbs in the hope of turning a fast profit. It was the first documented speculative bubble. When the bubble burst, the price of certain bulb types fell from that of a fine Amsterdam house to that of an onion.
The South Sea Bubble: England, 1719–20
The South Sea Company was a joint-stock company, one that sells shares in its business to raise money. Its aim was to take over England’s massive public debt and pay it off by selling shares. To provide the necessary boost in stock prices, the company led investors to believe it had a monopoly in South American trade. Investors clamoured to buy the stock, and the value rose by 800 per cent in 8 months. The company really did have a monopoly, but there was no trade. And the bubble burst.
The Mississippi Bubble: France, 1718-20
John Law, a Scottish renegade financier, gambler and convicted murderer, became the French government’s financial advisor in 1715. He established a central bank, issued bank notes and secured a monopoly over development in France’s American territories. Investors became desperate for a piece of this lucrative pie, and prices rocketed. Alas, Law’s promises were empty. The stocks crashed and so did France’s economy.
Speculative bubbles are still with us today. Beginning in early 2017, a buying mania swept the Bitcoin market. From January to November, the price rose from US$1,100 to $6,700. Major investment firms created new Bitcoin investment opportunities and wildly optimistic predictions were made by highly influential people—all pitching buckets of gasoline onto a raging bonfire.
Bitcoin is now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not care enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else.
Tweet: John McAfee, founder of computer security firm McAfee LLC, December 7, 2017.
The price rose in a near-vertical climb, hitting US$20,000 on December 18. Then, with a very loud “pop,” came an equally spirited decline. One volatile year later, the price was around $3,600—a loss in value of roughly 80 per cent. But that price is still around three times what it was in 2016. So, the bubble never entirely deflated, and long-term holders of Bitcoin are still ahead.
Many people have referred to the recent steep rise in house prices in Vancouver and Toronto as a bubble. While it’s true this currently overheated housing market shows many hallmarks of an economic bubble, it also has a very rational basis: there are simply not enough houses for the people who want them. Several factors have contributed to this rise, including speculation and low interest rates. Borrowing rates have been kept necessarily low in the years following the global financial crisis to stimulate a slow economy, but have had the side effect of heating up the housing market.
Keeping inflation low, stable and predictable preserves the value of money, but central banks such as the Bank of Canada also work to promote a stable and efficient financial system. The Bank pays careful attention to how interest rate adjustments work their way through the economy so that bubbles have a chance to deflate gradually rather than burst.
But as always, “caveat emptor”: let the buyer beware.
Resources and further reading
- G. Davies, A History of Money: From Ancient Times to the Present Day (Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 2002)
- N. Ferguson, The Ascent of Money (New York: Penguin, 2008)
- M. Goodwin and D. E. Burr, Economix: How Our Economy Works (and Doesn’t Work) (New York: Abrams ComicArts, 2012)
- “What is a Bubble” (Investopedia, Available at https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp)
- T. Lane, “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability—Looking for the Right Tools”(speech to HEC Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, February 8, 2016)
- T. Lane, “Decrypting ‘Crypto’” (speech to Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, October 1, 2018)
- N. Smith, “Yep, Bitcoin Was a Bubble. And It Popped.” (Bloomberg, December 11, 2018. Available at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-11/yep-bitcoin-was-a-bubble-and-it-popped)
- C. A. Wilkins, “The Age of Leverage” (speech to the UBC Vancouver School of Economics and CFA Society Vancouver, Vancouver, British Columbia, March 14, 2019)
For the first time since they went into their cases in 1980, over 2000 coins, notes, beads and shells are coming back out. The Museum’s curatorial staff are busily pulling panels from cases, placing coins into specially prepared drawers and sliding notes into acid-free Mylar envelopes.
The doors were barely closed following Big Top Farewell event before Chief Curator Paul Berry and his team began emptying display cases that had been sealed shut since 1980. The biggest task involved removing more than 2500 bank notes from the room we knew as Gallery 8.
Another convention of the Royal Canadian Numismatic Association (RCNA) wrapped up in July. This year the convention was held in Winnipeg, Manitoba. It was the first time in over thirty years that the RCNA Convention made a stop there.
Before the museum closed for renovations on 2 July, technicians began to remove the heavier artifacts in late May. First to go was the strong box. Built of ¼” thick welded steel plates, this trunk was used by the Bank of Upper Canada in Toronto between 1821 and 1866.
Most of us know the first part of Alexander Graham Bell’s take on opportunity: “When one door closes, another one opens…” What we often don’t recall is the second half of that quote, where he says: “…but we so often look so long and regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.”
The Staff of the Currency Museum was saddened to learn of the passing of artist Alex Colville who died on 16 July at his home in Wolfville, Nova Scotia. He was 92. One of Canada’s most celebrated painters, Colville is not as well-known as a sculptor but if you look carefully through your pocket change you might just find an example of his work.